Comedian Bill Maher admitted that his prediction about President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy tanking the economy by July turned out to be totally wrong.
During the Monday episode of his “Club Random” podcast, Maher said that he previously believed that Trump’s sweeping tariffs on foreign nations would trigger runaway inflation and economic collapse.
But so far, that hasn’t happened, and Maher said it’s time to acknowledge reality.
“I remember I, along with probably most people, were saying at the beginning, ‘Oh, you know, by the 4th of July’ — somebody had a thing — how the economy was going to be tanked by then,” Maher began.
Bill Maher admits he was wrong about President Trump’s tariffs. They worked. The stock markets are at record highs. He says he looks around and the country is doing fine.
The only reason people have been doubting President Trump is because of TDS.pic.twitter.com/MuDJClxoCF
— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) July 28, 2025
“And I was kind of like, ‘Well, that seems right to me.’ But that didn’t happen,” he conceded.
“Now, it could happen tomorrow,” the liberal comedian added.” I’m just saying that’s reality, so let’s work first from the reality of that, not from ‘I just hate Donald Trump,’ because that’s boring and doesn’t get us anywhere and leads you to dishonesty.”
Maher acknowledged the continued strength of the stock market and the everyday normalcy he observes across the country.
“[T]he truth is, I don’t know what his strategy is. But look, the stock market is at record highs,” he continued.
“I know not everybody lives by the stock market, but I also drive around. I don’t see a country in a depression at all. I see people out there just living their lives.”
“And I would have thought — and I gotta own it — that these tariffs were going to f***ing sink this economy by this time — and they didn’t,” Maher said. “How do we deal with that fact? Because that’s the fact.”
Progressive YouTube personality Brian Tyler Cohen, Maher’s guest, noted that the tariffs were a reminder of why he avoids bold predictions.
“If I was good at predicting things, Hillary [Clinton] would have been the president in 2016,” Cohen remarked.
Since entering office, Trump has used tariffs as a central tool in renegotiating what he sees as lopsided trade agreements that hurt American workers.
On April 2, the president introduced what he called “reciprocal” tariffs targeting dozens of countries, basing the rates on existing trade deficits.
Just a week later, Trump temporarily lowered those tariffs to 10 percent as global markets reacted sharply, giving other nations time to come to the negotiating table.
Back in March, Maher had ridiculed Trump’s efforts to revive U.S. manufacturing.
“I have one basic question: Why do we want to bring back manufacturing?” Maher asked during an episode of HBO’s “Real Time.”
“What is China’s competitive advantage? It’s their slave labor wage.”
Some dumb lady on Bill Maher show.
As long as Americans remain ignorant about what it takes to do manufacturing, they will never succeed in MAGA.#tariffs #Trump pic.twitter.com/rz8j5dnm53
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) March 16, 2025
“It’s so 70s, you know? I mean, that ship has sailed. You know, there are countries that make jeans for $11. We’re never going to be that country again.”
He went on to criticize the administration’s trade focus, suggesting it was regressive.
“China’s moving into the AI age, and he wants to go back to manufacturing, which, by the way, if you create new jobs, who’s going to take them? Robots. That’s who’s going to take them anyway! He acts like progress itself is woke.”
In April, Maher took another jab at the president’s tariff battle with China. “I just feel like he picked a fight with the wrong bully,” he said, implying the strategy could backfire.
"I just feel like he picked a fight with the wrong bully." — Bill Maher on Trump's China tariff war. pic.twitter.com/6Lj8TjXi1C
— Blue Georgia (@BlueATLGeorgia) April 19, 2025
Despite dire warnings, Trump’s approach yielded tangible results. In late May, the U.S. and China reached a temporary agreement to avoid an escalating trade war.
The U.S. scaled back tariffs from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China lowered its rate from 125 percent to 10 percent.
With the 90-day negotiation window expiring in early July, Trump sent letters to several nations notifying them of a new “reciprocal” tariff rate scheduled to take effect August 1.
Meanwhile, the administration has locked down a string of trade agreements, suggesting that the tariff gamble may be paying off.
On Sunday, Trump unveiled a trade pact with the European Union that sets a 15 percent tariff on EU goods, which is notably lower than the previously proposed 30 percent.
The EU also committed to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy and promised an additional $600 billion in U.S. investments.
Trump also finalized a deal with Japan last week, establishing a 15 percent tariff on Japanese imports, a reduction from a proposed 25 percent.
In return, Japan pledged $550 billion in U.S.-bound investments and agreed to open its markets to American automobiles, rice, and other agricultural exports.
The Philippines reached an agreement to lower U.S. tariffs on its exports from 20 percent to 19 percent.
Initially, Trump had placed a 17 percent duty in April before indicating in June that it could rise to 20 percent.
During his podcast, Maher also called out progressives for their refusal to engage with conservatives, arguing that it hinders productive political dialogue.
The comedian faced heavy backlash from the left in March after attending a White House dinner with President Trump, UFC President Dana White, and musician Kid Rock.
Maher described the criticism he received as a perfect example of the left’s unwillingness to engage outside its ideological circle.
“Your shot — doing nothing, not engaging — has zero chance. Mine — this guy, I’m telling you, I know this cat a lot better than I did before. He’s a people person. He talks to people. You have to keep the lines open,” Maher said.
🚨NEW: Bill Maher *GOES OFF* on "the left" over its most idiotic mistake🚨
"The stupidest thing the left does — and this dinner is a perfect example of it — is having this attitude toward the right that: 'We won't even break bread with you. We are so far above you that we won't… pic.twitter.com/8DZKOdSDZ0
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) July 28, 2025
“The stupidest thing the left does — and this dinner is a perfect example of it — is having this attitude toward the right that: ‘We won’t even break bread with you. We are so far above you that we won’t even sit down at the same table with you!’ That is their attitude — and that makes me sick too!”
“I’m glad I break bread … it’s what makes them hate the left so much, that they think that they’re deplorables,” he concluded.
“‘We’re deplorables. And you won’t even sit down to dinner with us.’ Well, good luck. See how far that gets you.”
Watch Monday’s full episode of “Club Random with Bill Maher” here: